Episode 99 - Week 1 Preview: Did the Bears Close the Gap?

The Packers and Bears have the oldest rivalry in the NFL and every rivalry is given to periods where one team dominates the other. And outside of an eight game blip during the Lovie Smith era, the Packers have dominated the Bears since Ron Wolf came to town in the early 90s.

But the winds of change may be blowing, and the reason for that breeze could be because of the changing reality of roster construction in the NFL. Teams are now empowered to spend like never before, leading to quick turnover on rosters throughout the league.

The Ringer’s Kevin Clark argued that this phenomenon largely explained the 2017 playoffs. https://www.theringer.com/2018/1/9/16867564/playoffs-salary-cap-free-agent-spending-jaguars-eagles-patriots on the new economic realities of the NFL, he broke it down in very simple terms:

It may sound simplistic, but the cap is rising at such a rate, and the carryover money is so great, that most teams can do anything they want within reason to their roster. “Any team who was bad with their salary cap in the past now has a get-out-of-jail-free card,” said Jason Fitzgerald, who runs Over the Cap, a salary cap website, and has consulted for NFL teams. Teams, Fitzgerald said, can use the excess cap money to easily get rid of mistakes they make in free agency and move on to other plans.

The Bears are one of these teams. Coupled with the cap space that comes with a quarterback on a rookie contract, Chicago leveraged the rising cap to remake their roster in rapid fashion. Wide receiver Allen Robinson signed a three year, $42 million deal and fellow receiver Taylor Gabriel signed a four year, $26 million deal. Prince Amukamara re-signed for three years and $27 million. Tight end Trey Burton, fresh off his Super Bowl touchdown pass to Nick Foles, signed a four year, $32 million contract. And after signing an offer sheet with the Packers, Kyle Fuller returned to the Bears on a four-year deal that featured $18 million guaranteed.

Capping it all, though, was the deal Khalil Mack received after the Bears gave up a hoard of draft picks to bring him over from the Oakland Raiders. His six-year, $141 million dollar contract makes him the highest paid defensive player in league history and his $90 million in guaranteed money puts him within spitting distance of Aaron Rodgers’ $103 million guaranteed, something that would previously have been unheard of for a defensive player.

This spending spree not only put the Bears squarely on the cutting edge of roster building trends, it also closed the gap with the Packers. Though they may not have fully caught up, this is certainly a different team than the Packers saw a year ago.

The Packers, though, made some free agent upgrades of their own. Jimmy Graham, Muhammad Wilkerson, and Tramon Williams all represent upgrades for the Packers. It’s fair to wonder who, if any, of them would have been in Green Bay during the Ted Thompson era. If the Packers do keep an edge over the Bears this season, it could be in part because they’re willing to adapt as well.

In any case, if there’s a new dimension to the league’s oldest rivalry, it’s because neither participant is willing to let the times pass them by.

Five Things to Think About During Sunday’s Game

1 - Even though the Packers added Darius Jackson to their running back group this week, it’s still pretty much just a two-man depth chart. That’s not ideal, but it was basically how things operated last year while Aaron Jones was injured. In the three games Jones missed due to injury last season, Jamaal Williams carried 61 times. Expect a big dose of Williams on Sunday.

2 - Though he may not be the primary ballcarrier, Ty Montgomery has had plenty of success against the Bears in his NFL career. 302 of his career 744 rushing yards have come against the Bears, including 162 in a single game in 2016.

3 - The Bears have plenty to be excited about at the running back position, too. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen are as solid a pair of backs as any team in the league could hope for, and they were both selected relatively close to Packers players in their respective drafts. Howard was taken with the 150th pick in the 2016 draft, just 13 picks after the Packers took Dean Lowry and 15 before they picked Jamaal Williams. Cohen was taken with the 119th pick in 2017, just 11 picks after the Packers made their ill-fated selection of Vince Biegel and 13 picks before they chose Trevor Davis. If things had broken just a little differently, both backfields could look significantly different.

4 - This isn’t the first time the Bears have added a big defensive piece in the Aaron Rodgers era. When Julius Peppers signed with Chicago in 2010, he was a five-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro. He didn’t get his first sack against the Packers until his fourth game, including the playoffs.

5 - New Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy is another branch on the Andy Reid coaching tree, but his path to his first head coaching gig is actually more similar to that of Mike McCarthy. McCarthy’s first coaching job in the NFL was as an offensive quality control coach, which he did with the Kansas City Chiefs before he became their quarterbacks coach. He filled the same role for a year in Green Bay before becoming the offensive coordinator for the Saints. He spent a year in that role with the 49ers before becoming the head coach of the Packers. Nagy also started as a quality control coach with the Chiefs before coaching their quarterbacks and rising to offensive coordinator last year.

Who Could Be an X-Factor This Week?

Bryan Bulaga is clearly the X-factor for Green Bay. Before training camp started, nobody would have been surprised if Bulaga wasn’t even on the active roster for this game, which is taking place almost exactly 10 months after he tore his ACL last season. Now, back in the lineup far earlier than anyone would have reasonably anticipated, he gets the job of shutting down Khalil Mack. It’s an unenviable task, but it could be what makes or breaks the Packers’ chances.

What Happened the Last Time the Packers and Bears Played?

Everybody knows Brett Hundley was abysmal last year, but one of his few bright spots was his late-season performance against the Bears. Aided by a 37-yard touchdown run by Ty Montgomery and five sacks by the Packers defense, Hundley guided Green Bay to a 23-16 victory that culminated with a beautiful touchdown pass to Davante Adams that put the Packers up for good. He may be a Seahawk now, but Brett, we’ll always have Chicago.

Who’s Going to Win?

As of this recording, the Packers are still 7.5 point favorites over the Bears, despite their huge addition over cutdown weekend. The Bears are much improved over last year, make no mistake, but I don’t think they’re far enough along in their development to give the Packers much of a scare this weekend, especially considering the Packers made some improvements of their own.

I’ll pick the Packers to win 27-20 to get their 2018 season off to a perfect start.

One Last Thought

Much has rightfully been made of the Bears bringing Khalil Mack over from Oakland, but just getting Aaron Rodgers back from injury should count for something, right? Rodgers has owned the Bears for the last decade, especially over his past 10 games. In that stretch, he has more games with a passer rating of 116 or higher than he does below 100, and the Packers are 8-2. That’s even counting the 2013 game where Shea McClellin made his one good play as a Bear, breaking Rodgers’ collarbone.

And as you’ll remember, in Rodgers’ next game against the Bears after that collarbone injury, he broke Chicago’s heart with a 4th down touchdown pass to Randall Cobb to put the Packers in the playoffs.